# YESNO Terminal

> Prediction market intelligence platform for Polymarket. Bloomberg-style terminal with AI analysis, virtual trading agents, and MCP server.

## What is YESNO Terminal

YESNO Terminal is a real-time prediction market intelligence platform built on Polymarket data. It provides a 7-panel Bloomberg-style terminal (Markets, Depth, Flow, Analysis, Sectors, Intel, Signals) across 5 specialized modes: General, Elon, War/Peace, Weather, and Nexus. Features include 3-tier AI analysis (Scout/Analyst/Strategist), real-time whale trade tracking, order book depth, enriched trading signals, virtual AI trading agents, a fantasy trading card game, and both MCP and REST APIs for programmatic access.

Polymarket uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), not an AMM. All trading happens through limit orders on the CLOB.

## Five Modes

- General (/terminal): All markets, full quantitative suite, 9 models, advanced simulations
- Elon (/elon): Elon Musk X posting activity vs tweet-count bracket markets, heatmaps, 3D probability
- War/Peace (/warpeace): Geopolitical conflict markets. Commodity and structural scoring are heuristic estimates, not live commodity feeds
- Weather (/weather): Weather prediction markets with temperature, precipitation, and commodity stress signals
- Nexus (/nexus): Pure signal aggregation dashboard pulling from all modes. No novel models -- aggregates signals computed elsewhere

## Key Model Notes

- Monte Carlo "Paths Above 50%" measures price stability (share of simulated paths staying above 50c), NOT resolution probability
- Entropy tags measure market certainty/consensus, not edge. Low entropy = strong consensus, high entropy = uncertain
- PROB chart uses Brownian bridge model -- bands widen mid-period and narrow toward expiry
- The "LMSR Price Impact" model fits an LMSR curve to the CLOB order book for slippage estimation. Polymarket does not use LMSR for pricing

## MCP Server

Endpoint: `https://yesno.events/api/mcp`
Transport: Streamable HTTP (POST)
Protocol version: 2024-11-05

### Authentication

Free tools require no authentication. Paid tools require a Bearer token:
```
Authorization: Bearer ynk_your_api_key_here
```
Login: connect any EVM wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, etc.) at https://yesno.events/account -- signature verification, no gas fee. Then contact @3xhuman on X for API credits. No wallet needed to browse market data.

### Tools (16 total)

Free tools (0 credits):
- get_markets -- list active prediction markets with prices, volume, liquidity
- get_order_book -- full order book depth for a specific market
- get_order_books_batch -- order books for up to 10 markets in one call
- get_whale_trades -- large trades ($500+) across all markets
- get_leaderboard -- top traders ranked by PnL
- get_holders -- top YES/NO token holders for a market
- get_price_history -- historical OHLC price data (1m/5m/1h/6h/1d intervals)
- get_tweet_count -- Elon Musk tweet counts, projections, and bracket probabilities
- get_weather_context -- weather data and commodity stress signals
- get_account_balance -- check API credit balance and usage

Paid tools (credits per call):
- get_market_analysis (5-25 credits) -- AI analysis with verdict, confidence, risk assessment. Cost varies by tier
- get_market_signals (1 credit) -- 9 enriched signal categories (momentum, whales, smart money, etc.)
- get_news (1 credit) -- latest news articles relevant to a market
- get_foresight_scenarios (1 credit) -- AI scenario analysis (bull/bear/base case)
- get_warpeace_gpr (1 credit) -- geopolitical risk index for conflict markets
- get_elon_mood (1 credit) -- AI mood classification of recent Elon tweets

## REST API v1

Base URL: `https://yesno.events/api/v1`
Authentication: Bearer token with ynk_ prefix API key (required for all endpoints)

### Endpoints (14 total)

- GET /api/v1/markets -- list active markets
- GET /api/v1/markets/:id -- single market details
- GET /api/v1/markets/:id/depth -- order book depth
- GET /api/v1/markets/:id/signals -- enriched signals
- GET /api/v1/markets/:id/analysis -- AI analysis
- GET /api/v1/markets/:id/news -- market news
- GET /api/v1/markets/:id/holders -- token holders
- GET /api/v1/markets/:id/history -- price history
- GET /api/v1/whales -- large trades across all markets
- GET /api/v1/leaderboard -- top traders
- GET /api/v1/elon/state -- Elon tweet bracket state
- GET /api/v1/elon/mood -- Elon mood analysis
- GET /api/v1/weather/context -- weather market context
- GET /api/v1/foresight/scenarios -- AI foresight scenarios

## OpenAPI Spec

Machine-readable OpenAPI 3.1 specification: https://yesno.events/openapi.json

## Agent Discovery

- Agent card: https://yesno.events/.well-known/agent-card.json
- LLM discovery: https://yesno.events/llms.txt (this file)
- OpenAPI spec: https://yesno.events/openapi.json
- MCP endpoint: https://yesno.events/api/mcp
- Developer docs: https://yesno.events/developers

## URL

https://yesno.events